Shade

October 2026, Singapore edition

The Matcha Supply Report 2026

Six things that changed in Japan's matcha supply since 2023, and what each means for a café that sells matcha every day. Every number is sourced.

We screened public evidence on 100 Japanese matcha suppliers and read Japan's official tea statistics. The supplier counts below come from that screen, dated 13 October 2026; everything else is linked to its source.

2.7x

The raw leaf costs nearly three times what it did in 2023.

Japan's national average price for tencha, the leaf matcha is milled from, rose from ¥3,141 a kilo in 2023 to ¥8,562 in 2025. The spring 2026 auctions cleared higher again: Kyoto's first sale averaged ¥14,127 a kilo.

For your café: matcha is still only about a tenth of a S$7 latte's price. A fixed annual price is worth more to you than the lowest price this month.

Sources: MAFF tea statistics, Oct 2026 (2025 price); MAFF, 茶業及びお茶の文化に係る現状と課題, Nov 2024, p. 16 (2023 price); Shokuhin, May 2026.

0 of 100

No supplier we screened publishes comparable lot test data.

Not one of the 100 publishes moisture, water activity or particle size for the lots it sells in a form you could compare. Three publish a price. One publishes a minimum order. In May 2026, Business Insider Japan reported that matcha still has no agreed definition. Shade uses "ceremonial grade" for one matcha only, Lot 03, a first-flush Saemidori for drinking straight, and its bag will link to its lab report like every other lot's.

For your café: ask any supplier for a dated certificate of analysis for the lot you'll receive, not a sample certificate.

Sources: Shade supplier screen, 13 Oct 2026; Business Insider Japan, May 2026.

42.5%

Kagoshima grows the most tencha. Most suppliers still sell Kyoto.

Kagoshima produced 42.5% of Japan's 6,278 tonnes of tencha in 2025, against 16% for Kyoto. Yet 53 of the 100 suppliers we screened lead with Kyoto origin, and only 8 with Kagoshima.

Share of 2025 tencha output (grey) and share of the 100 suppliers by first-named origin (green), %

Kagoshima42.5
8
Kyoto15.8
53
Shizuoka13.9
15

For your café: Uji is the most contested origin. For a latte lot, a reliable Kagoshima or Shizuoka spec is often the steadier buy.

Sources: Japan Tea Production Association via Aichi Prefecture; Shade supplier screen, 13 Oct 2026.

3.7x

Exports grew far faster than farms can.

Japan's powdered tea exports rose from 2,375 tonnes in 2020 to 8,718 tonnes in 2025. Over the same five years the number of family-run tea farms fell from 12,325 to 7,726, and 63% of farm operators are now 65 or older. A new tea field takes about five years to produce.

For your café: supply won't loosen quickly. Lock in volume before each spring harvest, when growers and mills plan their year.

Sources: MAFF tea situation report, Jul 2026; Osaka Customs, Dec 2025; MAFF farm structure; House of Councillors research paper, Dec 2025.

2027

New capacity starts arriving in 2027.

Kakuni Chato expects about 1,000 tonnes a year of matcha capacity by 2027. Mills and plants, not only fields, set how much matcha reaches the market.

For your café: expect prices to stay high through 2027, with more choice of origin after that.

Sources: Global Japanese Tea Association, July 2026.

12,000 t

China now makes most of the world's matcha.

China produced more than 12,000 tonnes in 2025, by its tea marketing association's count, at roughly US$16 to 28 a kilo. Some international chains already blend origins. Japan registered "Japanese tea" as a geographical indication in July 2026, to fight imitations.

For your café: if origin matters to your menu, ask for it in writing, lot by lot.

Sources: Global Times, June 2026; AP, Sept 2025; nippon.com, July 2026.

Ask this

Five questions to ask any matcha supplier.

  1. Can I have a dated certificate of analysis for the exact lot I'll receive?
  2. Who grew it, in which town, and in which harvest?
  3. How much can you guarantee me for the next 12 months?
  4. How will the price change, and by how much at most?
  5. What happens if a lot fails a test?

Shade's founding terms answer all five, in writing. Request a free tasting kit and judge it in your own latte.